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Edge: an overview of arbs between prediction markets and bookmakers
Prediction markets and bookmakers price the same matches independently of each other. Sometimes their prices drift apart so far that a bet on all outcomes across different venues yields a profit whatever the result. Edge finds such pairs, calculates the bankroll split taking the Polymarket order book into account, and shows them to everyone, for free.
Edge does not take bets, does not hold users' funds and does not trade on their behalf. It is an information tool: the decision and the bets always stay with the person.
Quick start
- Open "Arbs". The list is sorted by return. Filters: sport, market type (outcome, spread), venues, team search, favorites.
- Read the card. The market, the "whatever the outcome" return, the bankroll share bar, the legs of the pair with their prices (in cents on Polymarket, as odds at a bookmaker), the "on $1,000: …" line from the order book, the rarity and the "Rules differ" tag when the market conditions don't match.
- Click the card. A panel opens: prices, the age of the oldest price, your bankroll split, the "Accounting for the Polymarket order book" block and the "Add to journal" button.
- Check the prices on the venues before betting, and stake the leg with less liquidity first, then the others right away.
Rarity reflects the return: "Common" up to 1.5%, "Rare" 1.5–2.5%, "Epic" 2.5–4%, "Legendary" from 4%.
Why arbs appear
On a prediction market the price is formed by participants through an order book. At a bookmaker the line is set by the bookmaker itself: by its own model, with its own customers and its own margin in mind. These two mechanisms react to news at different speeds and are wrong in different ways.
- Different audiences. The crowd on prediction markets tends to overpay for popular teams, while a bookmaker moves its line to suit its own money flow.
- Different speeds. An injury, a lineup change or the weather reaches one venue before another. For a few minutes a window opens.
- Different liquidity. In a thin order book one large order moves the price, and for a while it doesn't match the market.
Such windows last from a few minutes to half an hour. Tracking them by hand across a dozen venues is impossible, which is what the scanner is for.
How an arb works
The price of a share on a prediction market is the probability of the outcome in the market's eyes: 45¢ means 45%. At a bookmaker the probability equals one divided by the odds: odds of 2.14 correspond to 46.7%. If the probabilities of all outcomes across different venues add up to less than 100%, an arb exists.
Example: tennis, two outcomes
Polymarket, YES "Player A" at 45¢$490.60
Bookmaker, "Player B", odds 2.14$509.40
Payout whatever the outcome$1,090
Profit on a $1,000 bankroll+$90, or +9%
The stakes are distributed in proportion to the probabilities, so the payout is the same whatever the outcome. In reality arbs usually give 0.5–3%. A pair at 8–9% more often means a data error or a difference in rules, and Edge hides anything above 15% as a probable error.
Types of arbs
Full market
All outcomes of a market are covered with the prices of different venues: winner (two or three outcomes), spread. One leg is always on the prediction market (the anchor), and the others are taken at the best prices of other venues after their commissions.
Single-outcome pair (soccer)
Two bets on the same outcome: at a bookmaker "the outcome happens", on Polymarket a NO share, "the outcome doesn't happen". For soccer there are three such pairs: a home win, a draw, an away win.
Example: a draw
Bet365: draw, odds 3.25probability 30.8%
Polymarket: NO on the draw at 66¢probability 66%
Sum of probabilities96.8%
Return whatever the outcome+3.3%
If the match ends in a draw, the bookmaker bet wins, otherwise NO wins. Such cards are always marked "Rules differ": you need to make sure the outcome is defined the same way (regular time, no overtime). The NO price is taken from the Polymarket order book.
What Edge does
- The arb list. Match winners (2 and 3 outcomes) and spreads in sports and esports, single-outcome pairs in soccer.
- Stake split. For every pair: how much to stake on each venue, how many shares to buy, what the payout and profit are.
- Real return from the order book. The return on your bankroll taking the depth of the Polymarket order book into account, not just the best price.
- Warnings. Marks for differences in settlement rules: hockey overtime, a draw in MMA, a tennis retirement, a technical loss in esports, the sign of a spread, single-outcome pairs.
- Price age. The card shows when a price was last updated.
- Tools and ticker. Calculator, converter, live feed, bet journal, the "Recent arbs" ticker.
How the scanner works
Matching games
A bookmaker's match is found on Polymarket by the English team names from the page address, the sport and the start time (a difference of no more than 6 hours). Country and club synonyms are taken into account (for example "Côte d'Ivoire" and "Ivory Coast"). Matches that are not on Polymarket do not take part in arbs.
Price freshness
Polymarket prices are considered fresh for 3 minutes, bookmaker and exchange prices live up to 7 minutes. The age of the oldest price in a pair is shown on the card; arbs with stale prices disappear on their own.
Quality filters
- Only lines 0 and x.5 are taken. Whole lines (with a refunded stake) and quarter Asian spreads (with half a win) break the arb calculation.
- Stale prices are discarded.
- Pairs with a return above 15% are hidden as a probable data error.
- In-play (live) matches are shown with a LIVE tag: in-play prices change within seconds, so such pairs must be re-checked before betting.
- Exchange commissions on winnings are included in the calculation. That is why the scanner may pick a venue with slightly lower odds but no commission.
Order book and real return
The price at which an arb is shown is the best buy price on Polymarket. There are usually few shares at that price, and the next levels are more expensive. If you put in a large amount, it "eats" the order book, the average price rises and the return falls. So for the best arbs Edge reads the public Polymarket order book and calculates:
- Volume at the best price: how many shares and dollars sit at it.
- Profitable volume: up to what amount each next share still brings a profit, with the average price and return.
- Return on your bankroll: a walk through the order book for the amount in the "Bankroll" field. On the card this is the "on $1,000: …" line. If the order book doesn't have enough shares for the whole bankroll, it shows how much would actually be invested.
Worth knowing: the calculation assumes a market buy (at sellers' prices), not a limit order, the Polymarket commission is taken from the settings (0 by default), and Edge doesn't know the bookmaker's maximum stake, which may limit your bankroll more than the order book does. The "Market liquidity" label on the card shows the total liquidity of the market, not the volume at the price you need.
Venues
| Venue | Type | Role in an arb |
|---|
| Polymarket | Prediction market, USDC | Main leg (anchor) |
| Betfair Exchange | Betting exchange | Second leg, commission included |
| Pinnacle | Bookmaker | Second leg and price benchmark |
| Bet365, Unibet, Stake | Bookmakers | Second leg |
Venue availability depends on the user's country. For Bet365, Unibet and some others the card shows the site's region, for example "Bet365 (Spain)": odds can differ between regional versions. Unavailable venues can be switched off with the "Venues" filter.
- Arb calculator: you enter the prices and bankroll by hand and get the stakes, payout and profit.
- Price converter: conversion between share cents, odds and probability.
- Live feed: arb opens and closes while the site is open.
- Bet journal: you record a pair, mark the settlement and see the total. The journal is stored in your browser.
Ticker and homepage numbers
At the top of every page, under the header on the homepage and next to the side panel in the other sections, runs the "Recent arbs" ticker. The CLOSED tag means the arb disappeared from the list: the return at its best moment, the venues and how long it lasted are shown (counted from the moment the server first saw it; after a server restart the count starts over). The SEEN tag is for arbs found earlier: when exactly they closed is unknown. An arb gets into the ticker if it has been gone for more than 90 seconds and lasted at least 20.
The four numbers under the main block (arbs open, best return, closed in 24 hours, typical arb lifetime) are calculated from real server data. In demo mode without a server the numbers are made up and the ticker is labeled "demo".
The agent and holder revenue
Besides the scanner, Edge has its own trading agent. It is live and trades on Polymarket and Stake. The plan is that all the fees from trading the $EDGE token go into the agent's trades, and the winnings are distributed to holders of the token.
- Where the money comes from. All the fees collected on trading of the $EDGE token are planned to become the agent's bankroll for trades on Polymarket and Stake.
- What holders get. The agent's winnings are planned to be distributed to $EDGE holders. How much the fees amount to depends on trading volume and can be small or zero.
The agent's trade journal
The "SI agent" page lists the agent's trades: a screenshot, the venue, the amount entered and, once the match is over, the result and payout. The team enters the trades by hand and marks them settled when the venue pays out; a settled trade can no longer be edited. The site does not verify these records on its own, so they are shown as "entered by the team".
How a payout to holders is planned to work
- Who is included. Every wallet that holds at least 500,000 $EDGE at the moment of the snapshot. The threshold is counted in tokens, not dollars. Liquidity pools, exchange wallets and team wallets are left out.
- Snapshot. The team reads all holders of the token from the blockchain (through Helius) and builds the list. Wallets that are program-owned are skipped automatically.
- Equal shares. The pool is split equally between everyone on the list: each wallet gets the same amount, however many tokens it holds above the threshold. The payout is made in SOL or a stablecoin.
- Published list. Before the payout the list is published with its hash, so anyone can check that their wallet is on it and that the list was not changed afterwards.
- Paid by the team. The fees collected by the team are first moved to the payout wallet (or to a multisignature wallet), and that move is visible on the blockchain. The team signs the transfers and they are sent in batches; the money arrives straight in the holders' wallets. After the payout the transaction signatures are saved with the published list, so anyone can find the transfers on the blockchain and match them to the list. There is nothing to claim and no smart contract to connect to.
Because the payout is signed by people, not enforced by code, holders rely on the team to pay exactly the published list. A multisignature wallet, where several people have to approve each transfer, reduces that trust but does not remove it. Whether and when a payout happens, and its size, depend on the results; see the risks below.
The token on the site
Once the token is launched, its contract address and the link to X appear in the site header next to the "CA" label; the copy button puts the address on the clipboard. Always check the address against the team's official X account before buying: there are many fake tokens with the same name.
FAQ
Is the profit guaranteed?
No. If you bet on all outcomes in time and at the prices shown, the payout is the same whatever the result. But arbs close within minutes, a price can move between the calculation and the bet, and market rules sometimes differ between venues. The "Rules differ" tag shows such cases. Profit is not guaranteed.
Do you take bets or hold my money?
No. Edge only shows pairs of prices and calculates the bankroll split. You place the bets yourself, on your own accounts at Polymarket and the bookmakers. We don't hold or manage funds.
Which venues are compared?
One leg of an arb is always on Polymarket, and the other outcomes are covered with prices from bookmakers and exchanges: Pinnacle, Bet365, Betfair, Unibet, Stake and others. Which ones are available to you depends on your country, see the arb card.
Will $EDGE holders get paid?
That is the plan: all the fees from trading the token go into the agent's trades on Polymarket and Stake, and the winnings are distributed to holders. But trading can lose money, there may be nothing to distribute, and there is no guarantee of any payout. The terms will be published before the first distribution.
Who gets a share of a payout, and do I need to claim it?
The plan: every wallet that holds at least 500,000 $EDGE at the snapshot gets the same amount, whatever the balance above that. You do not claim anything: the money is sent to your wallet. Keep the tokens in a wallet you control; tokens left on an exchange or in a liquidity pool are not counted for you.
How can I check that my wallet is on the list?
The list of each payout is published with its hash before the transfers are signed. Search it for your address. The team checks the same hash before paying, so a list that was changed after publishing would not match.
Who signs the payouts?
The team, from a payout wallet that holds the pool. If a payout is signed by one person, you rely on that person paying exactly the published list; a multisignature wallet, where several people approve every transfer, reduces that trust but does not remove it. Which setup is used will be published before the first payout, together with the payout wallet address.
Is Edge free?
Yes. The whole arb list, the filters and the tools are open to everyone: no subscription, no payment and no wallet are needed.
What does the "Recent arbs" ticker show?
Arbs that are no longer in the list. The CLOSED tag: the arb closed, and you see its return at the best moment, the venues and how long it lasted (time counted from the moment the server first saw it). The SEEN tag: arbs found earlier, when exactly they closed is unknown. The ticker does not show current arbs.
Roadmap
1
Scanner and sitePolymarket, bookmaker and exchange prices, full markets and single-outcome pairs, order book calculation, a ticker of closed arbs, a calculator.
2
AgentThe trading agent is live and trades on Polymarket and Stake.
3
Holder payoutsThe first snapshot, a published list and a payout to wallets holding at least 500,000 $EDGE, split equally. Not started until there is something to distribute.
4
CoverageMore bookmakers, Solana venues (BetDEX and others).
5
AnalyticsA detailed arb history, the average lifetime of a pair by venue and sport, more statistics on closed arbs.
Risks
- Speed. While you bet on one venue, the price on another may move away and an arb turns into an ordinary bet. Check the prices before every bet.
- Settlement rules. Venues settle overtime, draws, retirements and technical losses differently. Read the market rules. For single-outcome pairs it is important that the outcome is defined the same way.
- Limits. Bookmakers cut limits and close accounts of people who regularly catch arbs. Edge doesn't know a bookmaker's maximum stake.
- Liquidity. The prediction market order book may not have enough volume at the price you need: look at the order-book return, not just the best price.
- Data. Bookmaker prices can lag by a few minutes. The card shows the price age.
- Availability and law. Prediction markets and betting are regulated differently in different countries. The user is responsible for complying with the laws of their own country.
- Agent trading. The agent trades with real money and can lose it. There may be nothing to share with holders. Venues can limit or close the agent's accounts, and their rules and availability depend on the country.
Disclaimer
Edge is an information service. It is not a bookmaker, an exchange, a broker or a financial advisor, does not take bets and gives no guarantee of profit. Data may contain delays and errors. Any use of the token fees by the agent and any distribution of its winnings to $EDGE holders is a plan, not a promise: it depends on real results and is not guaranteed. Use the service at your own risk.
